There is a famous proverb that you may have heard:
Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice, shame on me
Well, I know who I’m never trusting again: the effing pollsters! Especially when it comes to Donald Trump.
It’s not completely clear why this is so bloody hard, but the pollsters were, once again, way the fuck off in their predictions about the election.
- Joe Biden was supposed to have anywhere between a 5% and maybe 11% lead nationally.
- Florida was supposed to be in play.
- Georgia was supposed to be in play.
- North Carolina was supposed to be in play.
- For Christ’s sake, Texas (Texas!) was supposed to be in play.
- Wisconsin was supposed to be part of the blue wall.
- Michigan was supposed to be part of the blue wall.
- Pennsylvania was supposed to be part of the blue wall.
None of those three states were supposed to be in doubt.
Now, Biden may still win Wisconsin and Michigan — it actually looks like he’s won razor-thin victories there (that will likely be subject to recount) — and who the fuck knows how Pennslyvania will turn out.
But these were supposed to be sure things, not the barest of squeakers.
After their hugely embarrassing miscount in 2016, the pollsters refined their methodology, and it looked like they had gotten it right in 2018. They were practically spot on.
Well, back to the drawing board in 2020.
Honestly, I don’t think I can ever trust these guys again, no matter how often they refine their methodology.
The only silver lining is that none of the the people on the Democratic side really trusted the polls anyway, so they kept working hard and raising money and voting early and doing whatever they could to succeed.
Clearly they were right to do that.
But pollsters, WTF do you have to say for yourselves? Seriously, WTF!