With today’s decision allowing the state of Alabama to go back to using its racially gerrymandered congressional map in the wake of the decision in Louisiana v. Callais (April 29, 2026), the Supreme court has now specifically allowed Louisiana, Texas, and Alabama to use these new maps, which Republicans think will buy them an advantage.

Maybe, maybe not.

(The Callais decision also effectively greenlighted redistricting in Florida, Tennessee, and potentially others without further SCOTUS action needed.) 

The danger for Republicans in this strategy is clear. As a share of all 204.6 million registered voters nationally, only 43% of registered voters have declared a party affiliation at all. Of those who have, roughly 45.4 million are Democrats and 39.2 million Republicans. The rest are either unaffiliated or in states that don’t collect party data. 

So the general national picture, where data exists, is roughly Democrat ~37%, Republican ~31%, Independent/unaffiliated ~28–32% (with independents the fastest-growing group by a wide margin).

Notice that Democratic registration exceeds Republican registration nationally by about 6%. That is not nothing (although these shares have clearly been substantially diluted by Republican gerrymandering, which has been far more aggressive than Democratic gerrymandering).

We Democrats love to fight our battles with one hand tied behind our back.

But, by gerrymandering so aggressively, Republicans have also created many districts where their traditional 10 point advantage with voters leaning Republican are now only a 2 or 3 point advantage. 

It doesn’t take that big a swing (especially with Independent voters) for those advantages to be wiped out in states where we’re looking at a 2 or 3 point differential. And if things keep going as they are now — closed state of Hormuz, gas prices still climbing, grocery prices still climbing, and a President who has explicitly stated that he doesn’t give a shit about how the regular people are faring economically — for this to be a historically difficult election for Republicans.

Is that a guarantee?

Of course not.

Republicans have done alarmingly well whenever Trump has been at the top of their ticket.

But he won’t be at the top of their ticket this time around.

Republicans currently hold a 218–214 majority in the House, with 3 vacancies. That’s an effective margin of just 4 seats. Democrats need to gain a net of only 3 districts to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than 2 districts and retain control.

I’m just saying.

Be careful what you wish for, my Republican friends.