By now it’s pretty clear that the Iowa caucuses were a mess. It’s pretty much acknowledged that the phone app that was developed for this year’s caucuses was a total disaster. And it wasn’t even the Russians this time. It was just plain old-fashioned incompetence.
It’s Wednesday morning as I write this, and still we’re only at about 71% of the votes counted.
What is interesting is that right now Buttigieg is leading 27% to 25% over Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden is trailing the pack in 4th with 15%. Elizabeth Warren is clocking in at about 18%.
As I’ve written previously, I was wrong about Bernie Sanders, and he continues to surprise. But this one is a disaster for Joe Biden and very encouraging for Pete Butigieg.
Buttigieg has a lot in common with Obama from 2008. He really doesn’t have nearly enough experience, and he’s gay. But he does have something that Obama had right from the start, and that is character.
Buttigieg has a lot of character, and that can overcome a lot of other deficiencies. I didn’t think that America would elect a black man (or at least bi-racial man) in 2008, so maybe we’d elect a young gay man in 2020.
Who knows?
In any case, I wouldn’t feel good about the Iowa caucuses if I were Joe Biden.
My original preference was Warren, but as time goes on, I increasingly believe the Democrats need someone more inspirational. Buttigieg offers youth, he’s bright, has a good non-political backstory, he’s not too far left, he’s a Washington outsider and a breath of fresh air. He is so much the opposite to Trump in just about every way except race.
The doubters said that JFK was unelectable as a Catholic and too young (?four years older than Buttigieg), that Obama was unelectable as an African-American, that Clinton was unelectable as a woman (she won the popular vote), so I would have no worries about Buttigieg being unelectable as gay (hey, even Ireland elected a gay PM).
Biden and Sanders, even Warren, are too old. Buttigieg’s success in Iowa should propel him to the front of national consciousness, and he can go all the way from there, especially if he puts an African-American on the ticket.
But I suspect his major problem will be the DNC and its Machiavellian manipulations.