When Biden was first elected President in 2020 I said over and over again that Biden should declare that he would only serve one term, giving Democrats four years to find his successor.

But nobody listened to me.

As it is, early on Biden had suggested that he would be a one-termer, and even a “bridge” president to the next Democratic administration. 

The other thing that I said repeatedly is that we elected Obama and Biden in the wrong order. We should have elected Biden first, with Obama as his loyal Vice President, and then elected Obama. But that’s on us. That’s our fault.

And now, here we are.

How much is Biden diminished since 2020?

I don’t know. Biden’s infamous debate performance certainly didn’t help. Nor have Biden’s subsequent explanations — he had a cold, he  had been traveling too much — provided much comfort. After all, Biden had a week to prepare.

Some will argue that it’s very hard to debate someone whose entire presentation is basically a string of lies. But Biden’s advisors should have anticipated that. There should have been a strategy for how to deal with that. And it also doesn’t explain why Biden’s first few answers were so incoherent.

Only the people who work with Biden on a daily basis know how much (if at all) Biden is diminished from four years ago.

I also wouldn’t be mad at the New York Times or commentators like Thomas Friedman for suggesting that Biden should drop out. Of course, Trump is much worse than Biden and the New York Times hasn’t suggested that he should drop out. But that’s because how terrible Trump is is part of his appeal. Trump spews his fountain of lies, but he spews them with conviction.

In any case, it appears that the American people, on balance, believe that Biden is diminished.

And now, here we are.

Biden is determined to hold on, and he is, by reputation, a “stubborn man.” But if more and more Democrats defect then a tipping point will arrive where Joe will have no choice but to give way.

And then what?

There are huge risks with replacing Biden, as there isn’t much evidence that anybody (outside of Michelle Obama) would out-poll Trump (and Michelle Obama will definitely never run).

Kamala Harris is the most obvious replacement, but the question is, is America really ready to vote for a person who is both biracial and a woman?

I am. But how about swing voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia?

Harris has some of the same limitations that Hillary Clinton had, which is that a lot of people just don’t like her.

Well, how about Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California? Handsome white man. Articulate, passionate. Just the kind of guy who traditionally would be a great candidate. But, he’s completely untested. How would he perform in the white hot lights of the national stage? Who knows.

And there is also his recent recall election in California, or that he was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle (Donald Jr.’s current girlfriend), or that there were some other issues in his Governorship. So again, who knows.

Or how about Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan? She is a strong and passionate candidate, but she is also a woman, and clearly some voters in America are just not ready for a woman to be President. On top of which, she just isn’t very well known, and she is completely untested on the national stage.

Or how about Pete Buttigieg, our current Secretary of Transportation? Pete proved back in 2020 that he has charisma, given that he was the Mayor of Indianapolis and only 38 years old, and still became a credible candidate for president. I believe that Pete will eventually be president for the same reason Obama became president — he has that “it” factor — but I don’t think that time will be now. Look for him in 2028 or maybe 2032.

Biden had his one-on-one interview with George Stephanopoulos on Friday, and he was certainly better than during the debate. But Biden is still somewhat unconvincing, not that he cannot do the job today, but that he can do it for another four years. He refused to take an independent medical and cognitive evaluation, although, to be fair, if he has to take one, then Trump would have to take one too.

Those would be some fascinating results.

The Democrats have exactly 43 days to figure it out before the beginning of the August 19 convention. That is not a lot of time, my friends, but maybe just enough to get this thing solved.